Well, it’s kicked off. The voting closed last night (5 November) and the counts have begun, with some states already being called.
And pretty soon, the US will have its new president. Only we don’t quite know how soon but as it stands right now, Donald Trump seems to be projected to win the 2024 election.
With a very tight race throughout the campaigns between him and vice president Kamala Harris, millions of American citizens cast their votes early; either voting by post or in person before yesterday.
Polls were initially neck-and-neck with some analysts reluctant to make firm prediction over who would win. But the former president, Trump, has taken key swing states, putting him right on the cusp of returning to the White House.
It’s looking like he might’ve done it again. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
However, this doesn’t necessarily meant the race will be called quickly and we’ll have a confirmed winner.
So, media call the result in the days or week (sometimes weeks) after polling day but this is only ever just a projection – the election is officially certified by Congress on 6 January.
How long it takes to be called pretty much depends on two key things: how close the votes are in individual states and then the specific laws in those states around vote counts and potential recounts.
Politics professor at NYU and senior geopolitical risk adviser at financial firm Kroll, Josh Tucker told The Independent: “The way to think about this is a razor’s edge coin flip with a wide margin of error which could lead to either candidate winning.
“But it could also lead to these scenarios where we could not know for days or weeks.”
And Dr Hans Noel, associate professor of government at Georgetown, also said: “It is possible it could be really quick,” but he did add: “I think we should be prepared to sit tight.”
She would be the first female US president. (JEFF KOWALSKY/AFP via Getty Images)
Of course, as things are currently going with Trump winning key swing states including Pennsylvania, there is the possibility we know the projected result today (US’s election night).
Tucker pointed out: “One option for election night is that the polling has been off in a way that favors Donald Trump and it becomes apparent that he wins enough of these states that, even on election night, we’re able to see he’s probably going to win.”
But this still could all be dragged out by a state taking longer to count votes or problems arising.
And there’s still the chance that as the polls predicted it ends up ‘a toss up’ between the pair.
“It was Saturday after the [2020] election that we knew the winner,” Tucker said, so if this year is similar, ‘it will be days’ before getting a projected result.
Noel also agreed this is possible, but if legal issues arise with counts where things are much tighter then we could be waiting for weeks.
